Thursday, September 29, 2005

The last card

It seems that Zarqawi and his group are running out of ways to sabotage the political process so he decided to play his last card, the civil war.

To those who don’t know much about Iraq, its population is divided mostly between Arabs and Kurds and the majorities of them are Muslims and belong to the main Islamic two sects in Iraq Sunni and Shi'at. The estimated rates are (60% Shi'at Arabs, 20% Sunni Arabs and 20% Kurds) and there are too many ethnic and religious groups that I didn’t mention because I want to focus on the active sects in Iraq.

Zarqawi depends on the 20% Sunni Arabs and is trying to provoke them to start the civil war in Iraq and in his last statement he declared war on Shi'at hoping to drag Shi'at to the war but he didn’t declare war on Kurds because the majority of Kurds are Sunni Muslims and he don’t want to fall in contradiction by declaring war on his sect of Islam (Sunni) although the Kurds support the "American Occupation" by all means because the American protected the Kurds during Saddam's regime.

I don’t know how Zarqawi wants to win the war and I guess he doesn't care about that the outcome of the war all he cares about is to start the civil war, on the other hand the Shi'at community led by the Sistany (the chief cleric of Shi'at in the Islamic world) refuse to be dragged to war in spite of the bloody attacks done against them and the Sistany made it clear when he said that "we wont go to war even if half of the Shi'at got killed in Iraq"
The big difference between the insanity of Zarqawi and the sanity of Sistany is what the Iraqis count on to avoid the civil war and to propel the political process and have peace in Iraq.
One important question left that anyone might ask "does Zarqawi represent the Sunni Arab in Iraq?" there are too many details to answer this question but in the end the answer will be no, but I will try to clear few things out.

First, there is no real representation for Sunni Arabs in Iraq because all the three major powers in Sunni world in Iraq "Association of Muslims Scholars, The Iraqi Islamic Party and The Fatwa and Preaching Board) don’t represent the Sunni but they affect them through the mosques.

Second, those powers have connections with the terrorist groups in one way or another and they use the terrorists to put pressure on the government to gain some political benefits.

Third, those powers lack the political wisdom because they boycotted the first elections in Iraq saying "no elections under occupation" they bet that the whole political process will go down if all the Sunni boycotted the elections and most of them did because they were under threat, but when they saw that the process is going on and the elections succeeded they changed their minds and now they are willing to go to the elections this year although the "occupation" is still the same!!

I guess you can see that for a regular Sunni person living in Iraq he will be between two hammers; the three Sunni power centers and Zarqawi and they are two faces for the same coin and if the Sunni Arabs keep surrendering to those powers they will be the firewood used to keep the blood stream in Iraq flowing and they have to notice that those groups don’t have any project but to object on anything the government proposes and to keep the killing alive.

We truly hope that no civil war will take place in Iraq and the Sunni Arabs will wake up some day because in civil war there are no winners at all.

10 Comments:

At 3:33 AM, Blogger olivebranch said...

I like to get to know people with what seem to be differing views about the Iraq war than the norm.

Do you believe you are in the majority or minority in Iraq (if you do support the presence of US troops that is).

I am against it, though I think an immediate withdrawal would be catastrophic, and it is both too late and too early to withdraw now. The political process needs to succeed or fail first.

The current government needs to come to an end, and Iran's control needs to be weakened.

a FREE Iraq cannot be achieved otherwise.

both your commentary and your english is good and I look forward to reading your posts in the future :)

my blog is
http://olivebranchoptimism.blogspot.com/
I may say some things you don't like and probably some you disagree with, but I think you will like the overall tone of my blog.

I am in no way anti-american, or pro-terrorist or anything like that, and I spend much of my time and effort reading Iraqi blogs to try and get a better picture of the past, present and future so that I can make my own opinion, and be able to trust in it aswell.

hope to hear from you soon :)

send me an e-mail

[olivebranch]

 
At 12:56 AM, Blogger jean said...

Thank you for this explanation. "Between two hammers"--we call it "between a rock and a hard place."

 
At 9:49 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Sooni,

Thanks for sharing your thoughts.

It seems that being a Sunni in Iraq today is difficult in unique ways, but let us not forget that it is difficult for everyone, and in too many ways at this point.

Hopefully, this will be resolved in the end, because Sunnis are a minority, and nothing can protect a minority better than a secure democratic governement structure, but a minority with equal rights is not the same thing as a minority with special priviledges!

Of course the ruling priviledges enjoyed by the Sunni minority in the former regime did provide some measure of "protection", but that was at the "expense" (to use a moderate term) of the other communities, a situation that certainly chokes the prospects of the oppressed, but those of the oppressors as well in the end!

This really is what is at play in Iraq these days I believe: Between the old ways (winner takes all, and keeps all, by force) and the potential for negociated settlement of the natural conflicts of civil existence, a choice will eventually be made.

This has happened before, and will happen again in other places and at other times. I pray that reason and freedom will prevail, but I realize that wishing is not enough for this to happen. It will take courage an perseverance on the part of those who want a wide open future for themselves and their children.

God bless you! Dom.

 
At 5:01 PM, Blogger TallDave said...

Great post.

This line was especally good:

"the insanity of Zarqawi and the sanity of Sistany"

Like night and day.

 
At 1:11 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Dear Sooni

Civil war in Iraq? What for?

Iraq is not Lebanon, as it was manipulated by Iran's proxies and Governed by the agent Syria?

The USA/UK and their allies wised up to that game a long time ago?

Iraq is very important strategically for the peaceful coexistence within the ME region, inluding peace with Israel, OIL supplies to the rest of the world,including India and china,( both account for over two billions people) and Indonesia and Turkey, and for planting the seeds of Democracy,Freedom and the Rule of Law and Human Rights,in the Arab world to leave it to Al Qaeda the discredited ( Taliban sytem of governement) Al Zarqawi's criminals and terrorists,cloaked in religious masks, The failed and hostile Syrian Ba'athist Government and the Iranian Faqih( Sharia)-(The Islamic Republic Dictatorship), to play with and use as a bargaining chip to leverage, intimidate , blackmail and arm twist the Western and now Eastern Countries democracies including Russia and to some extent China.

There is no way they will allow Iran, and its poodle Syria to dictate the terms on the conduct of the war on terror and the Elimination of freedom and the way of lives of the Free world.

They will use Nuclear bombs as they did on Japan some sixty years ago to defend their freedom, and systems of their people's powers.

please Tell those uneducated, immature and ill informed idiots to learn from History and act accordingly.

It may be too late in any case, and the die is cast already?

Kind regards

Hameed Abid

 
At 8:54 AM, Blogger dcat said...

Sooni,

I’ll stay on topic… I don’t think he has a full deck let alone know what card to play!

Let’s just say he has no more moves left! That is the best answer!

I’ll wager all and call his bluff!

 
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At 4:09 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

its been a while since your last post...is everything alright?

 
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At 11:44 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

It is hard to lose,the smart take the loss like a sportman,but a stupid person will kill himself and not give in.The Suni will one day say enough stupidity,after all what is our goal?Will the world accept Zarkawi one day?They should say we lost the past but gained the future.

 

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